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  • Gideon Samid

Corona Crisis Termination Date -- A Live Probability Statement


To be Issued by the Corona Crisis Task Force


No one knows when this killer virus will be strategically defeated, but this date is crucial for communities all around to plan the near term future. If all we have to do is to hanker down for a couple more months or so, then it is one thing. If we face a two or three years of struggle, then our planning is completely different. Therefore despite the fact that this matter is soaked with uncertainty, one needs to flush out the degree of certainty as it emerged day by day, as the battle to defeat the virus rages on.
In the practice of Innovation Management it is a routine to construct a live probability statement for cost to complete and time to finish for any R&D project. It is our bread and butter at D&G Sciences -- Innovation Productivity Corporation, and we would be eager to put our expertise to good service, but the initiative and the hard work to assemble and update the data is a matter for the Corona virus task force. As the various vaccine candidates sail through their development stage, they project ever higher certainty on the subject. So while in some rough estimate the termination date will be somewhere from next April to end of 2021, with non-negligible chance for a multi years ordeal, these limits will narrow with time. Whatever this probability state is, it serves as the prime input for strategic planning by the community as to openings of business, administration, and schools.
The state of probability of termination date can be defined globally, nationally or at community level. The definition of termination date must also be specific. One option is to set it up as the point when 2/3 of population has been vaccinated, so that herd immunity kicks in, and the virus is no longer a strategic threat.
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